Will Flávio Bolsonaro Be Detained Before December 31, 2026?

Market context

After losing the runoff to Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro is barred from leaving Brazil by order of Justice Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Federal Court, in a Federal Police investigation. Will he be detained before the end of the year?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, between the date and time this market's status changes to open on Pálpito and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027; 02:59 Brasília time on January 1, 2027), Flávio Bolsonaro is taken into the custody of an authority in any country through a formal arrest: a preventive, temporary or in-the-act arrest carried out by Brazil's Federal Police or another Brazilian police force; a detention or arrest by the police or immigration authority of another country, including a detention on an Interpol red notice or an extradition request; or the start of house arrest ordered by a judge. It counts even if the custody is brief, if he turns himself in, or if he is released later. The following do not count: an arrest warrant not carried out within the period; the seizure of passports, a ban on leaving the country, an electronic ankle monitor, a night-time home curfew or other precautionary measures other than arrest; a summons or a statement to the police; a migration or document check in which he is not formally detained; or custody that began before this market opens. Resolves No in any other case. The date and time the custody begins count. Primary source: Brazil's Federal Police (gov.br/pf). Backup: Agência Brasil. If neither publishes it, it counts if at least two of these outlets report as fact, not as an account from anonymous sources, that he was detained within the period: Folha de S.Paulo, O Globo, Estadão, G1, Reuters, AP. The result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.gov.br/pf