Does Jair Bolsonaro Receive Amnesty or a Pardon During 2027?

Market context

If Flávio wins the presidency, he has already publicly promised to free his father from the conviction for the coup attempt: amnesty in Congress first, a pardon if that is not enough. Will he follow through in 2027?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, at any point during 2027, Jair Bolsonaro's conviction for the attempted coup is extinguished by (a) an amnesty law passed by the National Congress and sanctioned or promulgated, or (b) a pardon decree (presidential pardon) signed by the sitting president. Resolves No if neither path materializes during 2027. It resolves based on the act of sanctioning/promulgating the law or signing the decree, regardless of whether the STF strikes it down afterward.