Which Party Wins the US House of Representatives in 2026?

Market context

On November 3 the United States elects all 435 seats of the House of Representatives. Today the Republicans hold the majority. The party that reaches 218 seats wins. Democrats or Republicans?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Democrat if the elected representatives of the Democratic Party, plus those elected as independents who count with that party under this rule, add up to at least 218 of the 435 seats of the US House of Representatives won in the November 3, 2026 elections, according to the winners declared by Associated Press (AP). Resolves Republican if those of the Republican Party, counted the same way, add up to at least 218. If neither reaches 218, it resolves to the party with more seats; if they tie, it resolves to the party of the person elected Speaker of the House before the deadline and, if no Speaker is elected before the deadline, it resolves Republican. A representative elected as an independent counts with a party only if, at the deadline, they are part of its caucus or have publicly announced they will join it. Each seat counts for the party it was won under, even if the person later changes party or leaves the seat. Runoffs and recounts that AP calls by the deadline count. What AP shows on January 31, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on February 1, 2027) counts; if AP's results do not decide it by then, the official House composition published by the Clerk of the House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov) on that date decides. Resolution source: Associated Press (apnews.com); backup source: the Clerk of the House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov). Trading in this market closes the night before the election, on November 2, 2026 at 23:59 US Eastern time (22:59 Mexico City time; 04:59:00 UTC on November 3, 2026); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesNovember 3, 2026 at 4:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://apnews.com