Which Party Wins the US Senate in 2026?

Market context

On November 3 the United States elects 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Today the Republicans hold the majority. The Democrats need 51 seats, because in a 50 to 50 tie the vice president, a Republican, decides. Who controls the Senate?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Democrat if, as a result of the November 3, 2026 elections, the senators of the Democratic Party, plus the independent senators who are part of the Democratic caucus, add up to at least 51 of the 100 seats of the US Senate. Resolves Republican in any other case, including a 50 to 50 tie, because the tiebreak belongs to the vice president, who is a Republican. An independent senator counts for the Democrats only if, by the deadline, they have publicly announced they join the Democratic caucus. The seat count of Associated Press (AP) decides, adding the seats won in the 2026 elections, including special elections, to the seats not up for election in 2026. What AP shows on January 31, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on February 1, 2027) counts; if AP's count does not decide it by then, the official Senate composition published by the US Senate (senate.gov) on that date decides. Resolution source: Associated Press (apnews.com); backup source: the US Senate (senate.gov). Trading in this market closes the night before the election, on November 2, 2026 at 23:59 US Eastern time (22:59 Mexico City time; 04:59:00 UTC on November 3, 2026); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesNovember 3, 2026 at 4:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://apnews.com