Who Wins the Brazilian Presidency in 2026?

Market context

Lula is seeking another term. Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father, is fighting to take it from him. Brazil votes on October 4 and, if no one reaches 50%, there is a runoff on the 25th. Who takes the presidency?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is certified as president-elect of Brazil by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), in the first round (if he surpasses 50% of the valid votes) or in the runoff. It also resolves No if the election does not take place on the scheduled dates (October 4, 2026, first round; October 25, 2026, runoff if applicable) by December 31, 2026, whether due to postponement, cancellation, disqualification of the candidate, or another extraordinary reason.
• When it closesOctober 26, 2026 at 2:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.tse.jus.br