Who Wins the Brazilian Presidency in 2026?

Market context

Lula is seeking another term. Flávio Bolsonaro, backed by his father, is fighting to take it from him. Brazil votes on October 4 and, if no one reaches 50%, there is a runoff on the 25th. Who takes the presidency?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro is certified as president-elect of Brazil by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), in the first round (if he exceeds 50% of valid votes) or in the second round. Resolves No also if the election is not held on the scheduled dates (October 4, 2026, first round; October 25, 2026, second round if applicable) before December 31, 2026, whether due to postponement, cancellation, disqualification of the candidate, or another extraordinary reason.
• When it closesOctober 26, 2026 at 2:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.tse.jus.br