Does Alexandre de Moraes Resign or Get Removed as an STF Justice?

Market context

Brazil's most powerful judge, the justice who led the case that convicted Bolsonaro over the coup attempt, is under fire over his closeness to the jailed Banco Master banker. Flávio Bolsonaro has already called for his resignation. But an STF justice is nearly bulletproof: no similar case has ended in removal in recent history. Does he end the year out of the job?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, before December 31, 2026, Alexandre de Moraes either (a) submits a formal resignation from his position as a Federal Supreme Court (STF) justice, accepted or made official, or (b) is removed through a completed impeachment process (crime de responsabilidade), meaning final approval by the Senate after admission by the Chamber of Deputies. The mere filing of a complaint or impeachment request does not count as Yes, nor does Moraes simply recusing himself from cases tied to Banco Master while remaining in office. Resolves No if he remains in office through that date, whether because he does not resign, the impeachment process is not completed, or he only recuses himself from specific cases without leaving the position.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027, 2:59 am UTC
• Verification sourcehttps://portal.stf.jus.br