Is Jair Bolsonaro's conviction reduced or revoked before October 4, 2026?

Market context

Former President Jair Bolsonaro is serving a sentence of 27 years and 3 months, handed down by the Supreme Federal Court (STF) in September 2025 for his role in the 2023 coup attempt. A judge has already blocked a legislative attempt to reduce his sentence in 2026. Speculation persists—without a firm decision—about a possible political negotiation and about amnesty bills in Congress persists. This market captures that risk of queuing before the first round.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if, before 23:59 (BRT) on October 3, 2026, AT LEAST ONE of the following occurs, confirmed by an official decision and not merely announced or proposed: (a) The STF issues a final resolution that reduces Jair Bolsonaro's conviction, grants him a habeas corpus, or modifies the compliance regime to one of freedom (including partial commutation or pardon of any magnitude); (b) The National Congress approves and enacts an amnesty law or similar law that reduces or annuls his conviction, The Official Gazette of the Union. Resolve NO if none occurs before the shutdown, or if the STF/Congress explicitly rejects or archives the attempts. Deciding authority: STF and/or Diário Oficial da União. A law passed only in one chamber, or an appeal pending ruling, DOES NOT resolve YES.
• When it closesOctober 4, 2026 at 2:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.stf.jus.br