Pump or dump: which does BTC hit first, $80,000 or $65,000?

Market context

Pump or dump? Bitcoin has two paths: up to $80,000 or down to $65,000. Which comes first? There is no fixed date: the market is decided the moment Bitcoin touches one of the two prices.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesPump wins if Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) touches $80,000 BEFORE it touches $65,000. Dump wins if it touches $65,000 BEFORE it touches $80,000. Bitcoin touches $80,000 when the 'high' field of a BTCUSDT 1-minute candle is GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 80,000. It touches $65,000 when the 'low' field of a 1-minute candle is LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 65,000. Window: from the 1-minute candle that opens at 00:00:00 UTC on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 (18:00 on Monday, November 9, 2026, Mexico City time) to the 1-minute candle that opens at 05:59:00 UTC on Wednesday, January 1, 2031 (23:59 on Tuesday, December 31, 2030, Mexico City time), inclusive. The price that is touched first counts, by the candle open time. If one 1-minute candle touches both prices, the Binance 1-second candles of that minute are used; if both are touched in the same second, the price nearest to the 'close' field of that 1-second candle wins. The market closes when Bitcoin touches one of the two prices; trades made after the touch do not change the result. If at the end of the window Bitcoin has touched neither price, Pump wins if the 'close' field of the last candle is GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO $72,500, and Dump wins otherwise. Source: Binance spot, public endpoint https://data-api.binance.vision/api/v3/klines?symbol=BTCUSDT&interval=1m. If Binance does not publish BTCUSDT 1-minute candles for part of the window, for that part the CoinGecko USD price of Bitcoin is used (5-minute points): a price greater than or equal to $80,000 or less than or equal to $65,000 counts as a touch. If neither source has data for part of the window, the market is resolved manually with the best public information available.… See moreSee less
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2031, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourcehttps://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT?type=spot