Will El Buen Fin 2026 sales exceed 235,000 million pesos?

Market context

Did you know El Buen Fin 2025 sold 219,200 million pesos, 9.6% above its official goal of 200,000 million? For 2026, Concanaco estimates sales of about 235,000 million pesos. Context: 1. El Buen Fin 2026 runs from November 13 to 17: five days of offers across the country, with more than 200 thousand businesses expected. 2. Concanaco estimates that 49,000 million, 21% of the total, will be sold online. 3. In 2025 the Ministry of Economy announced the figure on December 5, 18 days after the end: 46,000 million pesos more than in 2024. For: in 2025 sales beat the official goal by 19,200 million pesos. Against: the line equals Concanaco's own estimate, which expects slower growth than last year. Data as of November 9, 2026. Sources: Ministry of Economy (via El Universal and El CEO), Concanaco Servytur (via UnoTV and Publimetro). Closes on November 12 at 23:59 Mexico City time. What's your Pálpito?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves «Yes» if: the total sales figure for El Buen Fin 2026 (scheduled for November 13 to 17, 2026) announced by Mexico's Ministry of Economy is STRICTLY greater than 235,000 million pesos. Resolves «No» if: the figure is 235,000 million pesos or less, or if no valid figure is announced before the deadline. Edge case: exactly 235,000 million pesos resolves «No». The first figure the Ministry of Economy announces is used, as announced («235.4 mil millones» equals 235,400 million). If it says «more than X»: with X of 235,000 million or more, it resolves «Yes»; with a lower X, that phrase is not enough and an exact figure is awaited within the deadline. What counts and what does not: the total sales figure for the 2026 edition nationwide counts, in a Ministry release or stated by one of its officials or by the President on its behalf (in 2025: 219 billion, announced on December 5). Earlier estimates, surveys, percentages, the spillover figure reported by SAT, and the sales of a single group (ANTAD, AMVO) do not count. Cutoff: the market closes at 23:59:00 Mexico City time on November 12, 2026 (05:59:00 UTC on November 13, 2026), before El Buen Fin starts. If delayed: if the Ministry of Economy does not announce the figure before 23:59 Mexico City time on December 31, 2026, the total sales figure published by Concanaco Servytur before 23:59 Mexico City time on January 31, 2027 is used; if neither is published, it resolves «No». Primary source: Ministry of Economy (gob.mx/se), El Buen Fin 2026 results announcement. Backup: Concanaco Servytur (concanaco.org).
• When it closesNovember 13, 2026, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourceSecretaría de Economía, cifra oficial de El Buen Fin 2026 (https://www.gob.mx/se)