Will Condusef exceed 90,000 complaints for possible financial fraud in all of 2026?

Market context

Condusef reports complaints for possible fraud. In H1 2026 it recorded 43,871 (+16.7% YoY). The linear full-year projection is around ~87,742. The 90,000 threshold captures whether fraud accelerates in H2 2026.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if Condusef's 2026 annual report shows more than 90,000 complaints for possible fraud (January-December 2026). Resolves NO if it reports 90,000 or fewer, or if the report is not published before March 31, 2027. Source: Condusef's official portal. The market closes on February 28, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on March 1, 2027).
• When it closesMarch 1, 2027, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourceCondusef, portal oficial (https://www.condusef.gob.mx)