Will the iPhone Duo exceed 10 million units sold in its first 12 months, according to market firms?

Market context

IDC projects that Apple will sell 10 million iPhone Duo in its first 12 months ($27B in revenue from a single product). Ming-Chi Kuo estimated production of 8-10M for the first year. The 10M threshold is the ceiling of the projections: this asks whether Apple will reach or exceed that figure, given that limited first-generation supply could restrict the real volume.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if IDC publishes, no later than November 30, 2027, an estimate of iPhone Duo sales or shipments greater than or equal to 10,000,000 units for its first 12 months of availability. If IDC does not publish it, Counterpoint Research is used as a backup with the same criterion. Resolves NO if the estimate is below 10,000,000, or if neither IDC nor Counterpoint publishes a figure by that date. Source: IDC. Backup: Counterpoint Research. The market closes on November 30, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on December 1, 2027).
• When it closesDecember 1, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourceIDC, Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker (https://www.idc.com)