Will Apple reach at least 35% of the global foldable phone market by the end of 2027, according to IDC or Counterpoint?

Market context

IDC predicts Apple will capture roughly 40% of the global foldable market by the end of 2027, bursting into a category dominated by Samsung and Huawei since 2019. It is an aggressive projection for a first-generation product with limited supply. This asks whether Apple will actually reach that share level.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if IDC (Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker) publishes, no later than June 30, 2028, data attributing to Apple a share of 35% or more of the global foldable phone market, by units shipped, for full-year 2027. If IDC does not publish that annual figure by that date, Counterpoint Research is used as a backup with the same criterion. Resolves NO if the full-year 2027 share reported by IDC (or, failing that, Counterpoint) is below 35%, or if neither publishes the annual figure by June 30, 2028. Full-year 2027 is evaluated, not a single quarter. Source: IDC. Backup: Counterpoint Research. The market closes on December 31, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2028).
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2028, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourceIDC, Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker (https://www.idc.com)