Will Apple stock (AAPL) close below $265 in at least one session before December 31, 2026?

Market context

After the September 9 keynote, Edison Lee (Jefferies) downgraded AAPL to Underperform with a $263.66 price target, arguing that Duo pricing creates a 'lose-lose' dilemma: raising prices curbs demand, absorbing costs pressures margins. Apple already guided Q4 FY26 revenue ($111.7-113.7B) below the Wall Street consensus ($114.95B). This asks whether the market validates the bearish thesis.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if Apple's (AAPL) official NASDAQ closing price is STRICTLY BELOW $265.00 USD in at least one session, from when this market opens for trading (go-live) through the close of December 31, 2026 (New York time). The official NASDAQ close is used, not the price adjusted for dividends or splits. If a session closes exactly at $265.00, that day does NOT count as Yes; a close below $265.00 is required. Resolves NO if AAPL closes at $265.00 or above in every session of the period. Source: Yahoo Finance (AAPL). Backup: Bloomberg. If they differ, the official NASDAQ close prevails. The market closes on December 31, 2026 at 15:00 Mexico City time (21:00:00 UTC on December 31, 2026), which corresponds to the NASDAQ close (16:00 New York time).
• When it closesDecember 31, 2026 at 9:00 PM
• Verification sourceYahoo Finance, AAPL (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/)