Will Rafael Caro Quintero Plead Guilty Before December 31, 2026?

Market context

Rafael Caro Quintero faces charges in New York for the murder of DEA agent Enrique Camarena and for drug trafficking. His defense and the prosecutors are exploring a deal; the next hearing is November 20 and trial is set for March 2027. Will he plead guilty before the end of the year?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, between the date and time this market's status changes to open on Pálpito and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027), Rafael Caro Quintero pleads guilty to at least one of the charges against him before the US District Court for the Eastern District of New York (Brooklyn), at a hearing where the court takes that plea. It counts even if sentencing happens after the deadline. A plea agreement signed or announced but not entered as a guilty plea at a hearing within the period does not count. A guilty plea in another case or another court does not count. If he dies, if the case is dismissed, or if his not-guilty plea still stands at the deadline, it resolves No. Resolves No in any other case. Resolution source: the press releases of the US Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York (justice.gov/usao-edny); backup source: the court docket (courtlistener.com); if neither publishes it, at least two of Reuters, AP, El Universal, Milenio and Reforma decide. Trading in this market closes on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourcehttps://www.justice.gov/usao-edny