Does the PL win more seats in the Senate than the PT in the October 2026 elections?

Market context

On October 4, 2026, in addition to the presidency, Brazil renewed two-thirds of the Federal Senate (54 out of 81 seats, two per state plus one for the Federal District) under a simple majority. The PL seeks to capitalize on Bolsonarist momentum and an aggressive recruitment strategy, including the possible candidacy of Michelle Bolsonaro for the Federal District. The PT, Lula's party, defends its bench in a Congress where the centrão continues to dominate. This market is a thermometer of the legislative power of each block, regardless of the presidential result.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolve YES if, according to the official result of the October 4, 2026 election, the PL obtains more seats in the Federal Senate than the PT among the 54 seats in dispute. Resolve NO if the PT equals or exceeds the PL in the number of seats won. In the case of a coalition or party merger formalized before the close of the market, the seats are counted under the acronym with which each candidate was actually elected, according to the TSE. Deciding authority: official and final result published by the TSE (not subject to pending substantive resources).
• When it closesOctober 4, 2026 at 9:00 PM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.tse.jus.br