¿Deja Miguel Díaz-Canel la presidencia de Cuba en 2026?

Market context

Cuba is living its worst crisis in decades: blackouts, a GDP fall that ECLAC estimates at 10.3% for 2026, and direct pressure from Washington, which called for Miguel Díaz-Canel to resign. Will he leave the presidency before the year ends?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, between the opening of this market for trading (the date and time its status changes to open on Pálpito) and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027), Miguel Díaz-Canel's term as President of the Republic of Cuba formally ends: an accepted resignation, a removal or revocation by the National Assembly of People's Power, death, or the appointment of another person as President of the Republic who is not a temporary substitute. It also resolves Yes if, within that period, the Presidency of Cuba or the National Assembly officially announces that his resignation was submitted and accepted or that he was removed, even if the departure takes effect later; if the National Assembly or the Council of State declares that he is permanently prevented from performing the duties of the office; or if he is detained by any authority, national or foreign, and is still detained at the end of the period. The following do not count: another person taking over the duties on an interim basis while he keeps the office; and leaving the post of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba. Resolves No in any other case. Resolution source: the official announcements of the Presidency of Cuba (presidencia.gob.cu) and of the National Assembly of People's Power; backup source: Reuters. If the official Cuban sources do not report, it resolves Yes if at least two of Reuters, AP and AFP report that Díaz-Canel no longer exercises the presidency. Trading in this market closes on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourcehttps://www.presidencia.gob.cu