¿Recibe México una nueva baja de calificación de Moody's, S&P o Fitch antes de julio de 2027?

Market context

Mexico keeps its investment grade with the three big rating agencies, but at the limit: Moody's (Baa3, stable, after a downgrade in May) and Fitch (BBB-, stable) have it on the last step, and S&P (BBB) has had a negative outlook since May. Will a new downgrade come before July 2027?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, between the opening of this market for trading (the date and time its status changes to open on Pálpito) and June 30, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on July 1, 2027), Moody's Ratings, S&P Global Ratings or Fitch Ratings announces a downgrade, by any number of notches, of Mexico's long-term foreign-currency sovereign rating: at Moody's, the long-term foreign-currency issuer rating; at S&P, the long-term foreign-currency sovereign credit rating; at Fitch, the long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR). The following do not count: Moody's downgrade of May 2026, outlook changes, special reviews (credit watch), local-currency ratings, ratings by other agencies, and the ratings of Pemex, CFE or other companies or states. Resolves No in any other case. Resolution source: the press releases of the three rating agencies (moodys.com, spglobal.com/ratings and fitchratings.com); backup source: the press releases of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (gob.mx/shcp). If they differ, the rating agency's press release prevails. Trading in this market closes on June 30, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on July 1, 2027); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesJuly 1, 2027, 5:59 am UTC
• Verification sourcehttps://www.spglobal.com/ratings