Will 2026 break Mexico's heat record?

Market context

SMN (Conagua) publishes Mexico's national mean temperature every year in the Reporte Anual del Clima en México, a series that starts in 1953. The record is 22.9 °C, set in 2024. Next come 2023 at 22.7 °C and 2025 at 22.6 °C. This market asks whether 2026 beats that record. Only the value SMN publishes counts.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if the national mean temperature for calendar year 2026, as published by SMN (Conagua), is STRICTLY GREATER than 22.9 °C. That is, it resolves YES at 23.0 °C or more. If the published value is exactly 22.9 °C, it resolves NO. Matching the record is not beating it. Resolution source: the SMN (Conagua) Reporte Anual del Clima en México, 2026 edition, published at https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/reporte-del-clima-en-mexico under the file name Anual2026.pdf. Precision: SMN publishes this value to one decimal place. That is the precision used to resolve. Governing value: the first one SMN publishes for calendar year 2026. Later corrections or recalculations do not change the resolution. No other source resolves this market. UNAM, NASA, Copernicus and the media are consulted only as a cross-check. Trading close: 23:59 on 31 December 2026, Mexico City time, that is 05:59:00 UTC on 1 January 2027. Publication deadline: if SMN does not publish the value for calendar year 2026 before 31 July 2027, the market resolves NO.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/reporte-del-clima-en-mexico