¿Suman Morena, PVEM y PT al menos 86 senadores al 31 de diciembre de 2026?

Market context

Morena (66), the PVEM (14) and the PT (6) have 86 senators today, exactly the qualified majority they need to amend the Constitution. PVEM senator Virgilio Mendoza left his party's leadership in Colima and seeks an opposition front. If a single senator leaves those groups, the count falls to 85. Will they still have at least 86 at the end of 2026?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if the sum of the sitting senators who are members of the parliamentary groups of Morena, the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) and the Labor Party (PT) in the Senate of the Republic is at least 86 on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027). Resolves No if the sum is 85 or less. Senators without a parliamentary group or from other groups do not count, even if they vote with those parties. A senator on leave does not count; the alternate counts only if sworn in on or before the deadline. A vacant seat does not count. A change of group counts from the date of the letter to the Board of Directors or to the Permanent Commission, even if it is published later. Resolution source: the membership by parliamentary group on the official Senate website at the deadline (senado.gob.mx/66/senadores/integracion), corrected with the letters of change of group, the leaves and the swearing-in records dated on or before the deadline; backup source: the Senate Gazette and the Permanent Commission Gazette published up to January 31, 2027. If the website and those documents differ, the documents prevail. Trading in this market closes on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.senado.gob.mx/66/senadores/integracion