Who Wins the Next French Presidential Election?

Market context

France elects a president in April and May 2027, and Emmanuel Macron cannot run again. Marine Le Pen arrives as the favorite after regaining her eligibility on appeal. Who takes the Élysée?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if Marine Le Pen wins the next French presidential election. Resolves No otherwise. The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027 (first round on April 18, 2027 and second round on May 2, 2027). This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market includes any potential second round. The winner is the person whom the Constitutional Council proclaims president-elect. If the Constitutional Council orders the election to be held again, the repeated election counts. If, for any reason, the result of the election is not known on or before December 31, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2028), the "Other candidate" option resolves Yes. Resolution source: the official proclamation of the results by the Constitutional Council of France (conseil-constitutionnel.fr); backup source: the official results of the Ministry of the Interior (resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr). Trading in this market closes on April 16, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on April 17, 2027), before any first-round polling station opens; the result is decided by the official proclamation, even if it happens after the close.
• When it closesApril 17, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr