Brazil Runoff: By How Much Does the Next President Win?

Market context

Flávio Bolsonaro beat Lula in the first round by less than 2 points (47.03% against 45.16%), and the polls put him ahead for the October 25 runoff. You already know who you think wins; now, by how much?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesThis option resolves Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round by a margin of less than 4 percentage points. Resolves No otherwise. The second round of Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for October 25, 2026. This group resolves according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round. The "margin of victory" is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes of the first- and second-place candidates, as published by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) with two decimals on resultados.tse.jus.br when 100% of the sections have been counted; if the TSE corrects those figures on or before October 31, 2026, the correction counts. If the published margin is 0.00 but one candidate has more valid votes, the "less than 4 points" option of that candidate resolves Yes. Valid votes exclude blank and null votes. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two ranges, the higher range resolves. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, the "Other result" option resolves Yes. If the final official result is not known on or before June 30, 2027 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on July 1, 2027), the "Other result" option resolves Yes. Resolution source: the official TSE result (resultados.tse.jus.br); backup source: the TSE open data (dadosabertos.tse.jus.br). No other source counts. Trading in this market closes on October 25, 2026 at 13:59 Mexico City time (19:59:00 UTC), before the polls close; the result is decided by the official TSE result, even if it is published after the close.
• When it closesOctober 25, 2026 at 7:59 PM
• Verification sourcehttps://resultados.tse.jus.br