Will the minimum temperature in Mexico City drop below 10.5 °C on November 4, 2026?

Market context

This market resolves on the lowest temperature recorded by station MMMX at Licenciado Benito Juárez International Airport over the full local day, according to the METAR observations published by NOAA.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if at least one observation from station MMMX (Licenciado Benito Juárez International Airport, Mexico City) for the local day of November 4, 2026 records a temperature strictly lower than 10.5 °C. Resolves NO if no observation that day does. Measurement window: the full local day, 00:00 to 23:59 on November 4, 2026, America/Mexico_City time zone. Trading closes at 00:00 on November 4, 2026, Mexico City time (06:00:00 UTC), at the start of the measurement window. That close does not change the measurement window. Resolution source: METAR and SPECI reports for station MMMX published by NOAA at https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=MMMX&format=json&hours=48. The temperature in the body of the report is used. Groups in the RMK section are not used. Precision: station MMMX publishes temperature in whole degrees Celsius, so no observation can land exactly on 10.5 °C. A minimum of 11 °C or more resolves NO; 10 °C or less resolves YES. If data is missing: if NOAA publishes fewer than 20 observations for that local day, resolution waits until 23:59 on November 5, 2026, Mexico City time. If observations are still missing then, the market resolves NO. Corrections NOAA publishes after resolution do not change it. Alternate access to the same NOAA source, if the main endpoint does not respond: https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/observations/metar/decoded/MMMX.TXT. SMN/CONAGUA is consulted only as a cross-check and never replaces NOAA.
• When it closesNovember 4, 2026, 6:00 am UTC
• Verification sourcehttps://aviationweather.gov/data/metar/