Who Wins the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?

Pálpito

Resolved

Geopolítica

Resolved

Geopolítica

Volume: $393.96
Resolved: Oct 9
Result: Other winner

Time	Other winner	Donald Trump	Emergency Response Rooms (Sudan)
2026-09-28T22:49:59.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-09-29T07:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-09-29T17:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-09-30T03:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-09-30T12:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-09-30T22:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-10-01T08:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-10-01T18:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-10-02T04:50:00.000Z	46.0%	3.0%	14.0%
2026-10-02T14:50:00.000Z	13.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-02T23:50:00.000Z	13.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-03T09:50:00.000Z	13.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-03T19:50:00.000Z	13.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-04T05:50:00.000Z	13.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-04T15:50:00.000Z	16.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-05T01:50:00.000Z	16.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-05T10:50:00.000Z	16.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-05T20:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-06T06:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-06T16:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-07T02:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-07T12:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-07T21:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-08T07:50:00.000Z	19.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-08T17:50:00.000Z	4.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-09T03:50:00.000Z	4.0%	2.0%	13.0%
2026-10-10T10:50:22.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-12T16:51:07.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-14T17:27:47.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T04:18:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T23:28:31.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T16:42:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:18:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T05:29:16.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T21:54:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T17:30:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-21T11:30:00.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-21T21:54:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T01:30:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T05:06:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T08:42:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T12:18:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T15:54:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T18:56:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T19:06:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T19:16:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T19:25:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T19:35:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T19:45:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-22T19:54:27.000Z	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Other winner

Resolved Yes

Donald Trump

Resolved No

Emergency Response Rooms (Sudan)

Resolved No

Market context

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is announced on October 9 in Oslo. There are 287 candidates and no clear favorite: the betting leader, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms, sits at only about 14%. This market splits the options among the most-named candidates and an "Other" for the rest. Pick who you think has the best shot.

Resolution criteria

How it resolvesResolves Yes if Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms is announced as the winner or co-winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on October 9, 2026. This is an exclusive market: only one option in the group resolves Yes. Confirmed by the official announcement of the Norwegian Nobel Committee (nobelpeaceprize.org). Resolves No if the winner is anyone else. The market closes at 08:59:00 UTC on October 9, 2026, minutes before the official announcement.
Verification sourcehttps://www.nobelpeaceprize.org

Timeline & payout

Market opened · doneOn September 28, 2026
Market closed · doneOn October 9, 2026
The result was decided · doneOn October 12, 2026
Payout completed · doneMinutes after the result