Will Mexico's 2027 minimum wage rise at least 10% (double digits)?

Market context

The minimum wage hits millions of pockets and is one of the administration's flagship goals: making it cover 2.5 basic baskets (around $10,800 a month). After years of double-digit hikes, in 2026 it rose 13%, to $315.04 a day. In December, CONASAMI sets the 2027 figure, with analysts split between 10% and 12% and the business sector asking to ease the pace. Does the double-digit streak hold (10% or more), or does the raise fall below? Yes or No.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves "Yes" if the increase to the general minimum wage for 2027 officially announced by CONASAMI (Mexico's National Minimum Wage Commission), effective January 1, 2027, is 10.0% or more versus the 2026 general minimum wage ($315.04 per day); that is, a general minimum wage of $346.54 per day or more. Resolves "No" if the increase is below 10%. Source: CONASAMI's official resolution or announcement (gob.mx/conasami), expected in December 2026. This refers to the country's general minimum wage, not the Northern Border Free Zone or the professional minimum wages.