¿Reduce Estados Unidos el arancel a los autos fabricados en México en 2026?

Market context

Cars made in Mexico pay a 25% tariff when they enter the United States; if they meet the USMCA rules, only on the non-U.S. content. Japan, Korea and the European Union already got 15%. Mexico is negotiating a cut, but on October 13 Sheinbaum said Trump stopped a deal that was almost ready. Will the tariff go down in 2026?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, between the opening of this market for trading (the date and time its status changes to open on Pálpito) and December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027), the United States Government signs a presidential proclamation or an executive order, or publishes a document in the Federal Register, that lowers the nominal Section 232 tariff rate on passenger vehicles and light trucks made in Mexico below 25%, or that enlarges the part of the value of those vehicles that is exempt from that tariff (for example, by also deducting Mexican or regional content). It counts if the nominal rate falls below 25% for at least a part of those vehicles or for a quota, even if the same measure changes or reduces the exempt part. The date of signature or of publication in the Federal Register counts, whichever comes first, even if the measure takes effect after the deadline. It counts if the measure applies to several countries and includes Mexico. The following do not count: the announcement of a deal, a joint statement, a framework agreement or a fact sheet that is not a proclamation, an executive order or a Federal Register document that changes the tariff; ongoing negotiations; procedural changes that do not change the rate or the exempt part; and measures that affect only steel, aluminum or auto parts. Resolves No in any other case. Resolution source: the Federal Register (federalregister.gov); backup source: the proclamations and executive orders published on whitehouse.gov. Trading in this market closes on December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Mexico City time (05:59:00 UTC on January 1, 2027); the result is decided by the events up to the deadline, even if they become known after the close.
• When it closesJanuary 1, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.federalregister.gov