Did Mexico's economy grow more than 0.3% in the third quarter of 2026?

Market context

GDP measures everything the country produces in a quarter and is the best gauge of whether the economy is advancing or stalling. It comes off a solid second quarter (+1.5% quarter-on-quarter), but with jitters over U.S. tariffs and softening consumption. On October 30, INEGI releases its first read on the third quarter (July to September). Does the economy keep pace and grow more than 0.3% versus the previous quarter, or does it cool off? Yes or No.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves "Yes" if the Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP (Estimación Oportuna del PIB) published by INEGI for the third quarter of 2026 (July-September) shows growth greater than 0.3% versus the second quarter of 2026, in seasonally adjusted terms. Resolves "No" if the change is 0.3% or lower (including stagnation or contraction). Source: INEGI's official Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP bulletin (inegi.org.mx, press room), released around October 30, 2026. Only the seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter figure in that bulletin is used, not the annual figure or analyst estimates. If INEGI later revises the figure, resolution uses the first number published in the Timely Estimate.
• When it closesOctober 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.inegi.org.mx/temas/pibo/