Will Canelo win the WBC title?

Market context

Mbilli reached the WBC super middleweight belt without fighting for him: he was interim champion and the Council elevated him to full champion in January, when Terence Crawford's title was vacant. He's still undefeated, 29 wins and a draw, and that tie was just his last fight. Canelo comes from losing to Crawford, at 36 years old and saying that he has three or four fights left. One detail that should be clear: in boxing, if there is a tie, the champion retains. To take the belt, Canelo has to win.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesMarket about the fight between Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez and Christian Mbilli for the world super medium title of the World Boxing Council, scheduled in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for October 31, 2026, with a starting time yet to be confirmed. It counts that fight between the two fighters regardless of the exact start time and the local date on which it starts, including the case where, due to the Saudi Arabian time zone, the fight takes place early in the morning of November 1, 2026 at local time in Riyadh. Resolve Yes if Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez is declared the winner of the fight and as a result he is recognized super medium world champion by the World Boxing Council. Any path to victory counts: knockout, technical knockout, referee stop, abandonment, disqualification of Mbilli, decision of the judges or technical decision. Resolve No in any other case, including: Mbilli's victory by any method; tie or technical tie, in which cases Mbilli retains the title; without a decision (no contest); and the case where Álvarez wins the fight but the title is not awarded to him for any reason, for example if he does not meet the 168-pound limit and the fight is played without the title at stake. Resolve No also if the fight does not take place on or before November 30, 2026, either due to postponement, cancellation, injury, change of rival or any other reason. Primary source: World Boxing Council (wbcboxing.com). Backup: ESPN.
• When it closesOctober 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM
• Verification sourcehttps://wbcboxing.com