Will Canelo win by knockout?

Market context

Canelo hasn't won by knockout since Caleb Plant, in November 2021: eight fights in a row resolved on the cards. The funny thing is that the hand is still there, in four of those fights he sent his rival to the canvas and could not close. Opposite is Christian Mbilli, undefeated, with 24 knockouts in 29 fights and a reputation for not taking a step back. The question stands by itself: does the knockout that Mexico has been waiting for five years appear, or are they going to the cards again?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesMarket about the fight between Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez and Christian Mbilli for the world super medium title of the World Boxing Council, scheduled in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for October 31, 2026, with a starting time yet to be confirmed. It counts that fight between the two fighters regardless of the exact start time and the local date on which it starts, including the case where, due to the Saudi Arabian time zone, the fight takes place early in the morning of November 1, 2026 at local time in Riyadh. Resolve Yes if Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez wins by knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), referee stop, abandonment or retirement from the corner (RTD), or the rival's inability to continue. That is, any victory for Álvarez that is NOT decided on the judges' cards. Resolve No in any other case, including: Álvarez's victory by decision (unanimous, divided or majority) or by technical decision; Álvarez's victory by disqualification of Mbilli; tie or technical tie; any victory by Mbilli by any method; disqualification of Álvarez; and without decision (no contest). Resolve No also if the fight does not take place on or before November 30, 2026, either due to postponement, cancellation, injury, change of rival or any other reason. Primary source: World Boxing Council (wbcboxing.com). Backup: ESPN.
• When it closesOctober 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM
• Verification sourcehttps://wbcboxing.com