Will October break Mexico's heat record?

Market context

SMN (Conagua) publishes Mexico's national mean temperature every month in the Reporte del Clima en México, a series that starts in 1953. The record for an October is 23.6 °C, set in October 2023. October 2024 and October 2025 each recorded 23.5 °C. This market asks whether October 2026 beats that record. Only the value SMN publishes counts.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves YES if the national mean temperature for October 2026, as published by SMN (Conagua), is STRICTLY GREATER than 23.6 °C. That is, it resolves YES at 23.7 °C or more. If the published value is exactly 23.6 °C, it resolves NO. Matching the record is not beating it. Resolution source: the SMN (Conagua) Reporte del Clima en México, monthly edition for October 2026, published at https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/reporte-del-clima-en-mexico under the file name RC-Octubre26.pdf. Precision: SMN publishes this value to one decimal place. That is the precision used to resolve. Governing value: the first one SMN publishes for October 2026. Later corrections or recalculations do not change the resolution. No other source resolves this market. UNAM, NASA, Copernicus, the SMN annual report and the media are consulted only as a cross-check. Trading close: 23:59 on 31 October 2026, Mexico City time, that is 05:59:00 UTC on 1 November 2026. Publication deadline: if SMN does not publish the value for October 2026 before 31 December 2026, the market resolves NO.
• When it closesNovember 1, 2026 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/reporte-del-clima-en-mexico