Will system 92E (possible Simon) make landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?

Market context

System 92E is an area of low pressure off southern Mexico that the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will probably be named Simon. This market asks whether it makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane before the close on 20 October 2026. Only NHC advisories count.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesThis refers only to the system Invest 92E (EP92) of the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), off southern Mexico as of 5 October 2026, and to the cyclone NHC designates from it under the same identifier, even if it regenerates. The name does not matter: if another system is named "Simon", it does not count. It resolves YES if that cyclone makes landfall on mainland Mexico or the Baja California peninsula with NHC's hurricane classification (64 knots, 74 mph / 119 km/h, or more). One landfall as a hurricane is enough. Islands do not count. Landfall is when the center crosses the coast. The NHC product that reports the landfall and its intensity is used; if it gives no intensity, the classification of the last advisory before it. If NHC does not report the landfall, the first advisory with the center over land is used. It resolves NO if this does not occur before 23:59 Mexico City time on 20 October 2026, that is 05:59:00 UTC on 21 October 2026. Sole source: NHC public advisories (nhc.noaa.gov). Later revisions do not change the outcome.
• When it closesOctober 21, 2026 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac