¿Dimite Pedro Sánchez como presidente del Gobierno antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

Market context

Sumar has set illegal PSOE financing as its only red line with the Government. The Civil Guard's UCO unit is finalizing reports on cash payments by the party, in a case being investigated by Judge Ismael Moreno based on documentation provided by businessman Víctor de Aldama, and the PSOE could face indictment as a legal entity. The party denies everything, and Sánchez has given no sign of resigning. Low probability, but this is the scenario that could escalate fastest if the judicial case advances and his own coalition partners follow through on what they've said publicly.