Does Morena's coalition keep its supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies in 2027?

Market context

A Buendía & Márquez survey for El Universal (August 2026) puts Morena at 35% of voting intention for federal deputies (48% among those who have already decided), well ahead of a fragmented PAN (11%/15%), PRI (9%/13%), and Movimiento Ciudadano (9%/12%), with no clear second place. Morena's image carries a net rating of +27 points, against -27 for the PAN and -39 for the PRI. Today Morena and its coalition (Morena-PT-PVEM, "Sigamos Haciendo Historia") control 364 of 500 deputies (73%), above the two-thirds threshold (334 seats) that lets it amend the Constitution: that is how the judicial reform and the elimination of autonomous bodies were passed. But midterm elections tend to erode the party in power, and there is open legislative debate about limiting overrepresentation in Congress, the very mechanism that gave Morena that 73% with fewer votes. Does it repeat the feat in June 2027?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves Yes if, according to the INE's official count after the June 2027 election, the sum of seats won by Morena and by the party or parties that make up its electoral coalition registered with the INE for the 2027 federal deputies election (whatever that coalition is named) reaches 334 or more of the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (two-thirds). If Morena runs without a formal coalition (with its own candidates only), it resolves Yes only if Morena on its own reaches 334 or more seats. Resolves No in any other case. If the INE has not published the final seat allocation for the Chamber of Deputies before October 1, 2027, the market is canceled and positions are refunded.
• When it closesOctober 1, 2027 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourcehttps://www.ine.mx