Market context

Tarcísio de Freitas is seeking reelection with a wide and consistent lead over Fernando Haddad: this week's polls put him at 42-54% against Haddad's 27-31.5% in the first round, and ahead in a potential runoff too (48% to 31%). Haddad also carries the highest rejection rate among the candidates (57%). Brazil's richest state votes on October 4.

Resolution criteria

How it resolvesResolves Yes if Tarcísio de Freitas is certified as governor-elect of São Paulo by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), whether in the first round (October 4, 2026, if he exceeds 50% of valid votes) or in a runoff (October 25, 2026). Resolves No if any other person is declared the winner, or if the election is not held on those dates before December 31, 2026, whether due to postponement, cancellation, candidate disqualification, or another extraordinary reason.

Verification sourcehttps://www.tse.jus.br

Timeline & payout

Market opened · doneOn September 9, 2026
Market closed · doneOn October 5, 2026
The result was decided · doneOn October 5, 2026
Payout completed · doneMinutes after the result