Will an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater occur in Mexico during September 2026?

Market context

September is the month with the highest seismic attention in Mexico: the earthquakes of 1985 and 2017 both occurred on September 19. This market asks if an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater will shake Mexican territory at any time of the month, regardless of the state or region where it occurs.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolve YES if, between September 1, 2026 at 00:00:00 and September 30, 2026 at 23:59:59 Central Mexico Time (America/Mexico_City), there is at least one earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or greater than 6.0 whose epicenter is located within the Mexican national territory, including its territorial waters, regardless of state, region or depth. A single event that meets these conditions is enough to resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO. Note about the time: The window is set to local time in Mexico (America/Mexico_City), not in UTC. Magnitude considered: the magnitude reviewed and confirmed by a USGS seismologist ('reviewed' status) is used, that is, the manually verified value and not the automatic preliminary magnitude that the system publishes in the first few minutes and which is usually adjusted later. The reported value is taken 72 hours after the earthquake; subsequent revisions do not change an already liquidated market. The liquidation takes place 72 hours after the market closes.
• When it closesOctober 1, 2026 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourceVerificación pública: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ . La resolución automática consulta la API del USGS (FDSNWS): https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query — acotada al territorio mexicano (latitud 14° a 33°, longitud -118° a -86°) y a la ventana del mercado convertida a UTC, considerando únicamente eventos con estatus 'reviewed'. Referencia cruzada: Servicio Sismológico Nacional (SSN, UNAM), https://www.ssn.unam.mx . En caso de discrepancia, prevalece USGS.