Will an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater occur in Mexico on September 7, 2026?

Market context

September 7 evokes the 2017 Chiapas earthquake (magnitude 8.2), the strongest recorded in modern Mexican history. This market asks if an earthquake of magnitude 5.0 or greater will shake Mexican territory on that specific date, regardless of the state or region.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolve YES if, between September 7, 2026 at 00:00:00 and September 7, 2026 at 23:59:59 Central Mexico Time (America/Mexico_City), there is at least one earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or greater than 5.0 whose epicenter is located within the Mexican national territory, including its territorial waters, regardless of state, region or depth. A single event that meets these conditions is enough to resolve YES; otherwise, resolve NO. Note about the time: The window is set to local time in Mexico (America/Mexico_City), not in UTC. An earthquake that occurred on the night of September 7 in local time counts for this market even if it corresponds to the following day in UTC (for example, the magnitude 8.2 earthquake in 2017 occurred at 23:49 local time, that is, 04:49 UTC on September 8). Magnitude considered: the magnitude reviewed and confirmed by a USGS seismologist ('reviewed' status) is used, that is, the manually verified value and not the automatic preliminary magnitude that the system publishes in the first few minutes and which is usually adjusted later. The reported value is taken 72 hours after the earthquake; subsequent revisions do not change an already liquidated market. The liquidation takes place 72 hours after the market closes.
• When it closesSeptember 8, 2026 at 5:59 AM
• Verification sourceVerificación pública: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ . La resolución automática consulta la API del USGS (FDSNWS): https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query — acotada al territorio mexicano (latitud 14° a 33°, longitud -118° a -86°) y a la ventana del mercado convertida a UTC, considerando únicamente eventos con estatus 'reviewed'. Referencia cruzada: Servicio Sismológico Nacional (SSN, UNAM), https://www.ssn.unam.mx . En caso de discrepancia, prevalece USGS.