Fed: what does it do with its rate on September 16, 2026?

Market context

The U.S. decision that Mexico watches out of the corner of its eye. Trump has spent months pressing Powell to cut rates, the market is split (nearly a coin flip between holding and cutting) and some are already betting on a 50-point cut in one go. And whatever the Fed does is felt the same day in the price of the dollar in your pocket. On September 16, with the range at 3.50% to 3.75%, it's decided: does it hike, hold, or cut? Take your position.

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolves «Yes» if the U.S. Federal Reserve, in its September 16, 2026 monetary policy decision (FOMC statement, ~2:00 PM ET / 12:00 CDMX), sets a federal funds target range above the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. Resolves «No» in any other case. Confirmed by the official FOMC statement.
• Verification sourcehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm