Will a new U.S. tariff of 10% or more come into effect on any Mexican product before September 30?

Market context

Washington reissued the tariff letter. On June 2, the USTR proposed a 10% tariff on Mexican products through Section 301, with an eye on forced labor, although it leaves out 85% of exports that comply with the T-MEC. Marcelo Ebrard is already at the table fighting to stop it, while the clock is ticking and other mechanisms are still available. Does a new tariff of 10% or more fall on Mexico by September 30, or does the negotiation stop it?

Resolution criteria

• How it resolvesResolve Yes if the federal government of the United States formally publishes an action that imposes an additional tariff of 10 percentage points or more on imports from Mexico, effective between July 1, 2026, 00:00 and September 30, 2026, 23:59 (Mexico City time). They count actions under any legal mechanism: Section 301 (USTR), Section 232 (USDOC), executive orders under IEEPA, or any other federal authority, published in the Federal Register, in executive order or in presidential proclamation. There are no tariffs already in effect before July 1, 2026 (for example, those of Section 232 on steel, aluminum and cars); only a measure whose entry into force occurs inside the window counts. Exemptions for compliance with the T-MEC or other treaties do not prevent resolution Yes, provided that the tariff comes into effect for covered goods. It is enough that the measure applies to any subset of Mexican goods; it is not required to cover all exports. Resolve No if no qualified measure takes effect in the window, either by bilateral agreement, withdrawal, suspension, reduction below 10 points, or because the entry into force is after September 30, 2026.
• Verification sourcehttps://www.federalregister.gov